US President Donald Trump’s administration is expected to present a long-awaited plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week, according to people familiar with the matter.
The blueprint would be presented to allies by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, the people said on condition of anonymity. They declined to say how detailed they expected the discussions to be or what format they would take.
The proposal would be delivered at the February 14-16 conference in the Bavarian city a week before Russia’s war hits the three-year mark. Kellogg and others have dropped hints in recent weeks of what Trump allies have referred to as “peace through strength”.
Elements include potentially freezing the conflict and leaving territory occupied by Russian forces in limbo while providing Ukraine with security guarantees to ensure that Moscow cannot attack again.
Spokespeople at the office of the Ukrainian president declined to comment. General Kellogg would continue to engage allies to help fulfil Trump’s promise to end the war, National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said.
The US president has also threatened Moscow with massive sanctions if it does not engage in talks.
Both Putin and Zelensky signalled that their previous refusal to talk to each other has softened as Trump’s plan approaches. In an interview late on Tuesday with television host Piers Morgan, Zelensky reiterated his readiness to talk to Putin to end the war, in the presence of Ukraine’s partners.
I’m guessing it will be Russia keeps the territory that it currently holds and Ukraine nominally gets a security guarantee.
My expectation is that Russia will take more territory. It’s highly likely they will want to take Kharkov, Odessa, and Dnepropetrovsk at the very least. There is very little the US can do about that at this point. Whether Trump understands this or not is a different question though. What might happen is that Trump will float his deal, then Russia will reject it and he’ll just quietly pull aid from Ukraine at which point the problem will solve itself so to speak.