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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • That depends on whether the virus starts spreading human-to-human with each infected person infecting more than one other person.

    If it does not, then things look like the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004, where a few people get sick, and a few people die.

    If it starts spreading with R₀ > 1, then pretty much everybody gets it, and a significant number die.

    We could reduce the risk of the latter with measures like:

    • Actively test all dairy herds
    • Vaccinate dairy workers, and regularly test them for infection
    • Quarantine those who are infected
    • Ban the sale of unpasteurized milk and crack down on existing black-market distribution of it

    However, it seems really unlikely that we’ll actually do so.